Water Umbra CielTier 2
at PTM 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1249–1249
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1146
Q1 1212
Q3 1386
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Fractal | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
